The Spook Has Moved!

my new address is:
http://www.althespook.com/ravings/
please drop by! And did I mention you can finally comment? Really!

He's Baaaaaaaack! (Mimicking Poltergeist Scene Voice)

Just in time for Halloween, He's Baaaaaaaaack!

Who?

Ahmed Chalabi, of course! The future Saddam Hussein replacement who was picked before the first shot was fired in the Second Iraq Invasion. I've mentioned him a time or two before here, and have been pooh-poohed for it. Detractors have said, "He's out of power. Bush and Gates hate him. He's dead meat, Iraqi Roadkill."

Sure.

From McClatchy Newspapers' Washington Bureau we read:

Ahmad Chalabi, the controversial, ubiquitous Iraqi politician and one-time Bush administration favorite, has re-emerged as a central figure in the latest U.S. strategy for Iraq.

His latest job: To press Iraq's central government to use early security gains from the surge to deliver better electricity, health, education and local security services to Baghdad neighborhoods. That's the next phase of the surge plan. Until now, the U.S. military, various militias, insurgents and some U.S. backed groups have provided those services without great success.

That the U.S. and Iraqi officials are again turning to Chalabi, this time to restore life to Baghdad neighborhoods, speaks to his resiliency in this nascent government. It's also, some say, his latest effort to promote himself as a true national advocate for everyday Iraqis.

Chalabi, in the run-up to the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003, provided White House and Pentagon officials and journalists with a stream of bogus or exaggerated intelligence about Iraq's weapons programs and ties to terrorism. He also suggested that he'd lead Iraq to make peace with Israel and welcome permanent U.S. military bases, which could apply pressure to Iran and Syria.

But Chalabi's proven a resilient politician since then and Iraqis yearn for someone who can make the government help them. In sermons in the holy Shiite city of Najaf and in Sunni newspapers alike, Iraqis here often reject their central government, saying it has done nothing for them since the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime. Instead, the government's critics say, local tribal leaders and residents rejuvenated neighborhoods by pushing fighters out and securing the streets.

I'm starting a pool here and now on when he seizes power; the winner gets an all-expense-paid trip to the Green Zone courtesy of Chalabi's Curries, the new catering service there; a New Dictatorship in every order! (Images courtesy of Wikipedia and The Iraqi National Congress.)

Are The PKK And The KRG Attempting To Destabilize Turkey?

I've been bothered recently by the string of seemingly-pointless PKK attributed attacks against Turkish troops along the border with the Kurdish Region of Iraq. It seemed to me to be verging on insane to invite a massive Turkish military incursion into the KRG's territory just when it was starting to finalize some very lucrative deals with western oil companies. I wondered if this was part of a larger strategy to block the KRG from those oil deals being masterminded by Big Oil through the ICG (phui!), perhaps using "false flag" attacks by mercenaries or splinter PKK cells.

I also noted that the Turkish military isn't really eager to become enemies with the United States, as they are part of NATO and want to be part of the EU. They certainly don't want to become bogged down in a war in very difficult mountain terrain during winter, either. Some Turkish lawmakers favor an economic retaliation, and the U.S. has hinted it might share intelligence data to help take out PKK strongholds without a full scale invasion. And leaders in the US Congress derailed an ill-advised attempt to pass a genocide resolution aimed at embarrassing Turkey internationally. So the whole thing made no sense.

Now accounts have emerged making it very likely that the main PKK organization is indeed behind these attacks and that they are being carried out systematically and effectively. This has a number of important ramifications. On the surface, it might mean that the KRG has decided that Turkey cannot effectively invade them this winter, despite the rhetoric and threatening troop movements. It is one thing to bomb and strafe isolated villages near the Turkish border, but is quite another to move many miles deep into KRG territory and occupy territory for the long term. One major issue that such an invasion and occupation would face is logistics; supply lines for the Turkish troops would have to cross many miles of mountain roads and be easily subject to attacks by PKK forces hiding in the rugged terrain. (The Russians found this out the hard way in Afghanistan.) Another is that it would very likely result in civilian unrest inside Turkey itself, as its ignored and under-classed Kurdish population would likely use the situation to press for greater freedoms in exchange for not supporting the PKK in their districts; failure to grant such autonomy would likely result in passive or even active PKK support in the affected areas. And finally, the Turkish military would discover just how entertaining attempting to control an insurgency-intense area can be, just like the US has done in Iraq proper. IED's for fun and profit, something for everyone!

As I've noted before in earlier posts, Turkey is currently in a bit of a standoff politically between an Islamist secularist movement which wants more religious influence in the daily lives of Turkey's peoples and less ties to the western economy and less power for the military and the economic elites, and the military and economic elites who want to continue Turkey's tradition of secular life with religious freedom and tolerance and a robust western-style economic system. Right now the Islamists have the upper hand; they succeeded in preventing the U.S. from using its Incirlik air base for attacks into Iraq in 2003, for example. The military/elite elements in Turkey want to portray the Islamists as tolerant of terrorism and extremism, and for them the attacks by the PKK are an excuse to do that even though the issues driving the PKK aren't even vaguely related to those of the "global jihad." By seeming to make a harsh and effective response to the PKK's attacks, the M/E faction can gain ground in future political contests and generally maintain the Turkish public's acceptance of its controlling role in the country's affairs.

But there is a hidden danger in the confrontation strategy that the M/E may be currently using, known as the "Red Lines" issue. Most westerners, even educated ones, don't know that modern Turkey was not a result of the "red-lining" on the map done by British and French politicians after World War I and the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. It came about because of a popular rebellion by Kamal Attaturk that managed to stave off the carving of Turkey into several balkanized mini-states (one of which would have been Kurdistan) and maintain it as a regional power through the interval between World War I and the Cold War. The Cold War was a blessing to Turkey because of its proximity to the Russian southern regions; its acceptance into NATO was clearly due in large part to its ability to provide an intelligence gathering capability and to serve as a base for launching operations into southern USSR regions if the Cold War became hot suddenly. (Click the map at right for a larger and more readable version.)

Why does this matter today? Because even though its role in NATO and now the EU are pretty much guaranteed, Turkey still harbors deep fears of being "partitioned" like Yugoslavia has been, leading to its marginalization in the region and even the possibility of being annexed by a resurgent Iraq or Russia. And to the Turks the main danger of this happening is the removal of the Kurdish regions of Turkey into their own state, merged with similar regions in Iraq, Syria, and Iran. This is the "red flag" that is currently being waved in front of the Turkish bull, and may cause it to actually attempt to invade and occupy a significant chunk of the KRG.

And this may be exactly what the KRG wants, long term. Crazy, you say? Maybe, but crazy like a Kurdish fox. If the PKK and the KRG can get the Turks to actually invade and occupy some of the KRG's territory, they may think that the eventual outcome of the matter would be a de-facto Kurdish homeland. Here is how the strategy might work. (Click the map at left to see a larger version showing which regions will be affected by this strategy.)

Step one is to get the Turks to commit about 100,000 of their troops and armor to the occupation. This will tie up most of their ability to act, militarily. It will also serve to greatly strain their ties with NATO and the EU.

Step two is based on the assumption that the US is about to go to war with Iran. This will allow the Kurdish portions of Iran to rebel against the Iranian government with some hope of success.

Step three is to have the Syrian Kurds rebel likewise, perhaps with Israeli aid. Note that neither of these uprisings stand any chance unless the Turkish military is unable to act against them as it did in the 1990 uprising after the end of the first Oil (Gulf) War. This is why having the bulk of the Turkish expeditionary military tied down in occupying the KRG is essential to this strategy.

Step four is to launch terrorist strikes inside Turkey proper, to the point where the Turkish people demand an end to the Kurdish occupation. The EU and NATO will heartily agree with this, and the formation of a UN-protected Kurdish homeland to put an end to the PKK terrorist activity will seem a reasonable price at that point. It will also serve to further marginalize both Iran and Syria, which is good from the standpoint of the US and perhaps EU as well.

Step five is to move from a UN trust territory into a full fledged nation state, based on the oil money from the KRG's oil fields. (This money and the long term availability of the oil would logically be what the KRG is hoping to use as leverage with the US and the EU against Turkey, especially since the ICG (phui!) is starting to be very uncooperative about the Oil Law the US oil companies want passed so desperately and indeed the whole US occupation itself.)

Would such a strategy work? I can't say. But it seems to me to be the only viable reason for the otherwise-suicidal attacks by the PKK against Turkey at this point.

Stay tuned to this feed for further updates. No Kurdish foxes were harmed in the posting of this blog, they were only seriously inconvenienced. (Images courtesy of GlobalSecurity.org.)

The Winter Of Our Discontent

Once again, the forces of common sense appear to be finding a foothold in the Middle East and the United States House Of Representatives. In the Middle East, under pressure from suspect PKK attacks (which may have been "false flag" operations from mercenaries or even disguised ICG (snarl) forces) the Turkish military has asked for and gotten approval to "cross the border" and raid Iraqi Kurdistan. Again.

But Oh Gollee Gee, it suddenly seems it's winter over there. Those mountains are bad enough in the summer; in the winter they are downright impassible. So, well, I guess that huge massive invasion somebody wants to happen to screw up the Kurdish Oil Deals may not happen after all. Shucky Darns.

And in the United States Congress, specifically the House of Representatives, wisdom has crept out of its customary little nest in the boiler room and managed to permeate the skulls of several key democratic and republican lawmakers. They have suddenly decided passing the Armenian Genocide bill isn't a good thought right now. The good thought right now is to keep Turkey friends with America and NATO while the U.S. military in the region gently and quietly steps on the idiots doing the attacks into Turkey.

So for the Big Oil folks, this indeed may be the Winter of Their Discontent. Poor babies. (Images courtesy of Wikipedia.)

Yanlış Bayrak!

Something wicked is going on near the Kurdish Iraq border with Turkey. Supposed PKK guerillas are killing Turkish soldiers and civilians indiscriminately, deliberately provoking a Turkish military incursion that threatens to degenerate into a full-scale insurgency against Turkey by all the Kurdish guerilla groups. Also, the idiocy of the Congress in its infinite stupidity to publicly insult the Turks with the Armenian Genocide Resolution is beyond the sublime, and rapidly reaching WTF proportions.

"Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action." Ian Fleming used this line in a James Bond novel, and it is a good rule of thumb. First we had the ICG (snarl, I'm no longer laughing at those murdering bastards) attempting to get Turkey to invade Kurdish Iraq on the cheap. The Turks said no. That was happenstance. Even the "warning bite" minor PKK attack on a bus (which my sources tell me was actually to kill a double agent who was about to take down a dozen major PKK cells) wasn't followed up. Turkish businesses were happily getting started in the Iraqi Kurdistan cities. The U.S. was making friendly noises.

Then came more PKK attacks, against Turkish troops. This provocation forced Turkey to move additional forces into the region and the military to grudgingly ask the Turkish civilian authorities (whom they loathe for the most part) for permission to move against the PKK's bases in Iraqi Kurdistan. That was coincidence.

And now we have this insane Genocide Resolution. It already passed the Senate (proving that idiocy by committee is still the finest kind) but the Turks swallowed that. They gave us an out by saying "just don't pass it in the House". Did we listen? Hell no; Nancy Pelosi has "lots of wealthy Armenian constituents" and must listen to them.

Horse Puckey. This is Enemy Action. The question is who?

Forget the ICG (howl-SPIT!); they don't have this kind of clout with Teh Congress, and wouldn't use it this way if they did. Somebody else wants the Turks to effectively dismantle Iraq Kurdistan. Cui Bono? To Whom The Good?

The answer lies in the PSA's signed with the minor and middle players by the Iraqi Kurdistan government; those PSA's give only about 50% of the profits to the foreign companies. The PSA's proposed in Teh Oil Law give 80% of the revenue to the foreign entities. And when you are talking about 200 billion barrels of oil, 30% is not a trivial number. Also, Teh Kurds want their formula to be written in to Teh Oil Law when it finally gets passed. That's insult to injury.

So who benefits if suddenly Iraqi Kurdistan is dismembered and unable to fulfill its PSA's. Answer, Big Oil. And they have the money, the clout, and the utter lack of scruples to do this little stunt.

But.....

....they're Fucking With The Turks. Big Time. The Turks are not stupid, they know exactly what is going on here. And they don't appreciate it! Being forced to shut down Incirlik even for a short time would be a step the Turkish military does not want to take, because it would give the anti-Turkish forces in the US military (and there are plenty) reason to suggest setting up shop in say, Azerbijan, cutting them off from much needed foreign exchange and subsidized purchases of US military hardware. And the Turks deal with Russia for oil to Israel and other Middle East nations; they know that Big Oil doesn't care for that one bit. So they aren't operating in a information vacuum here, rather the reverse.

Rule One applies to Big Oil just like everyone else in the Middle East. But they may be too stupidly arrogant to realize it until it is too late.

NB: The title of this post is "false flag" in Turkish. The "supposed" PKK guerillas could very easily be Blackwater mercs in disguise. And we know far too much about how eager Blackwater is to please its clients, with performance bonuses written in innocent blood.

By The Pricking Of My Thumbs....

...Something Waxman This Way Comes!

It may not be strict Shakespeare, but it is definitely what's on the mind of a number of people at the White House these days. And it's not a good feeling at all, because it indicates that the most deadly antagonist of George W. Bush may in fact have been overlooked in all the media hype and blog comment-storms. From U S News and World Report, we learn in this article that:

Rep. Henry Waxman, considered the meanest dog in town by the GOP, is still sniffing around the White House for proof the president lied when making the case for going to war in Iraq. We hear that he's been quietly summoning former Bush aides, especially speechwriters, to testify behind closed doors about what they knew and how they phrased his words on the issue. Whispers hears that one called in was John Gibson, a former National Security Council speechwriter. He wouldn't spill to us. The committee had no comment either... (Italics mine.)

There are two things that literally leap off this page to my somewhat-trained eye. First, the "quietly" part. Having something like this go on without publicity means that it is a real deal, not a photo-op oversight sham. Second, the "wouldn't spill to us" part. This is like going to a brothel and being told "not until we're married!" after you have paid. Leaks are what drive Washington, and to have something juicy like this kept under wraps means that Waxman is effectively invoking the Congressional equivalent of Grand Jury Secrecy rules (except those don't apply to witnesses of course...) And it is worth remembering that William J. Clinton was impeached for lying.

I love the smell of oversight in the morning. (Images courtesy of Wikipedia.)

Mr. Spock, Can You Lend Me Ten QUID Till We Reach Delta Vega?

To which your first reply should be, "Is Star Trek using British currency now?". The answer is, no, they are using the new Space Money developed by Travelex, a European equivalent to American Express.

QUID stands for "Quasi-Universal Intergalactic Denomination". Just so you know. From the company's press release:

Professor George Fraser from the University of Leicester commented: “None of the existing payment systems we use on earth – like cash, credit or debit cards – could be used in space for a variety of different reasons. Anything with sharp edges, like coins, would be a risk to astronauts while the chips and magnetic strips used in our cards on Earth would be damaged beyond repair by cosmic radiation. What’s more, because of the distances involved, it is more than 230,000 miles from the Earth to the moon, chip and pin technology is also out of the question.”

Professor Fraser continued: “We have had to completely rethink the design of the currency from the materials used to the payment mechanisms and aesthetics. The currency cannot contain any chemicals that might contaminate the astronauts’ life support systems and must be able to survive the extreme environment of space. We also had in mind that the currency should be meaningful for any intelligent life we might encounter in other planetary systems.”

Obviously, this is a cute promotional stunt leveraging off the nascent space tourism industry. As such it is a minor ripple of no particular consequence. But it does bring up something that we must now begin to seriously ponder, namely the exporting of our civilization's framework into outer space.

Up until now, everyone off the surface of the Earth for any length of time has been a government employee of some sort, military or civilian. But now we are reaching the point where within one generation (25 years) perhaps several hundred people will be in orbit at any given time, many of them ordinary (if not impoverished) citizens. What laws govern them? What method of exchange will they use for goods and services? What rights do they have? These are not trivial questions, and they are collectively called the Space Law Problem.

One of the leaders of the emerging Space Law movement is, of all people, the arch conservative United States politician Newt Gingrich. He has been working on this issue since the early 1970's, and has authored some significant papers on it which unfortunately seem to only be available to subscribers of legal journals. Other scholars have played with the notion as well but largely in the "ivory tower" sense. (The United Nations has a Space Law site!) Now is perhaps the time to descend from that yellowed edifice and get our collective mental and legislative hands dirty on this issue, before Corporatists (like Gingrich!) decide it for us, and not in our favor. (Images courtesy of Mr. Spock and Travelex. And Vulcans charge interest by the picosecond, in case you were wondering.)